Paul Nicholls answers critics of January figures

Paul Nicholls

A week ago Paul Nicholls was master of all he surveyed. The five-times champion trainer had already won three Grade One races and more than £1million in prize money in Britain and Ireland this season.

Then Kauto Star, be it through illness or the onset of anno dominie, was beaten in the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park. That in itself was little more than a blip in what bears all the hallmarks of another successful season for the trainer. Except that this month has been unusually quiet by the standards of the man who sets the standards for others who wish to claim his title.

Nicholls has saddled seven winners from 49 runners which has been, so far, his worst showing in January for the last five seasons set against 20, 26, 28 and 21% previously. Speculation about the causes of this have sparked a debate which has irritated Nicholls, who has never been shy in keeping the public informed, and he has issued a strong rebuttal to those who would question the form of his yard.

Writing on betfair.com Nicholls said: "It does irk me somewhat when people look at my strike-rate of 12% in January so far, and just assume that my yard is under a cloud. Indeed, I even read somewhere that the wellbeing of my string should be 'seriously questioned' if we don't have a winner this weekend. I must be missing something.

"Yes, that strike-rate is considerably lower than in previous Januarys, where I have consistently won with more than one in five of my runners, despite it traditionally being a quiet spell for us because of the flu jabs we give to the horses during the month.

"But I like to think I am more open than most when it comes to revealing information about the stable - be it injuries, breathing operations, and maybe even earplugs in the future! - to Betfair customers, the BHA, the racing channels and the written press.

"And I can tell you here and now that, as I write this, I have no concerns about the overall health of my horses.

"Yes, it is disappointing when horses run below par and don't win, and there have perhaps been a few too many this month. And a 12% strike-rate is far less than I normally would expect, I readily admit that.

"But lazy generalisations and comments tend to build up a momentum - like a good bit of gossip about the girl next door, no-one wants to spoil it with the sober reality that she has never even been kissed - if not checked.

"Checked in both senses of the word.

"So on Monday morning, I asked Timeform to go through all of my horses to have run in January and see if they performed above or below their Timeform master rating (horses that either failed to finish or were making their hurdling/chase debuts and had no comparable form were ignored - and, for the record, they included impressive winners such Minella Stars and The Minack, so I am not hiding behind statistics here).

"Fourteen improved on their Timeform master ratings, and 17 did not. Indeed, nine of the 17 ran at least a stone below form, with the likes of King's Legacy (50lb) Free World (33lb), Kauto Star (31lb) and My Will (30lb) all running races some way detached from their peak.

"As far as I am aware, sick horses do not tend to improve and among those not to have performed anywhere near their mark all have individual, not collective, reasons why they ran poorly."

Expect normal service, if it was ever seriously interrupted, to be resumed.

Paul Wheeler

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